Description

This analysis provides a forecast of BTC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-02-02 23.876692 26.387395 29.239107 32.762010 37.061428 42.227854 49.053107
2025-02-09 20.350774 23.730970 27.960124 33.828406 42.107820 54.022290 74.011410
2025-02-16 17.510562 21.247348 26.283954 33.984366 46.406880 68.039416 117.471146
2025-02-23 15.489697 19.405927 25.020726 34.377585 51.584279 88.746944 223.122421
2025-03-02 13.965999 17.960024 23.990996 34.843401 57.523769 120.273291 641.979133
2025-03-09 12.703248 16.675123 22.927963 34.935659 63.179558 166.077563 29041.238517
2025-03-16 11.798193 15.785216 22.314690 35.689880 71.446653 260.997317 NaN
2025-03-23 10.938041 14.841416 21.425910 35.611734 77.892881 420.484777 NaN
2025-03-30 10.288167 14.150097 20.856209 36.063683 87.156759 917.979944 NaN
2025-04-06 9.755408 13.585248 20.417438 36.696342 98.741231 5187.668732 NaN
2025-04-13 9.403371 13.281684 20.419343 38.467337 119.859715 NaN NaN
2025-04-20 8.877146 12.620044 19.608777 37.790180 127.356763 NaN NaN
2025-04-27 8.413122 12.060015 18.997625 37.737089 142.446074 NaN NaN
2025-05-04 8.058755 11.669333 18.697318 38.608236 171.585106 NaN NaN
2025-05-11 7.668623 11.181058 18.126803 38.480891 195.137805 NaN NaN
2025-05-18 7.342474 10.783680 17.704140 38.747805 231.495588 NaN NaN
2025-05-25 7.056830 10.437809 17.350547 39.169288 283.526291 NaN NaN
2025-06-01 6.776573 10.079330 16.921385 39.182026 340.186919 NaN NaN
2025-06-08 6.563101 9.831261 16.716536 40.028733 463.363710 NaN NaN
2025-06-15 6.322644 9.512584 16.303728 39.887916 577.269330 NaN NaN
2025-06-22 6.130991 9.275270 16.058692 40.403631 838.398722 NaN NaN
2025-06-29 5.963231 9.072732 15.873915 41.148467 1448.492457 NaN NaN
2025-07-06 5.856748 8.983830 15.961605 43.286261 7819.123129 NaN NaN